Gallup has compiled demographic data on 2012 likely voters (sample size 9424, margin of error 1%), and in most respects the electorate is essentially unchanged from 2008. The only exception is party identification. The electorate this year is significantly more Republican (and leaning Republican) and less Democratic (and leaning Democratic). Here are the numbers:
|
2004 |
2008 |
2012 |
|
| Democrat |
37 |
39 |
35 |
| Independent |
24 |
31 |
29 |
| Republican |
39 |
29 |
36 |
| Democrat/Lean Democratic |
48 |
54 |
46 |
| Republican/Lean Republican |
48 |
42 |
49 |
Of course, state-by-state distributions matter. But basically, it looks to me like success for the Romney campaign depends on getting their supporters to the polls.
It concerns me a bit, therefore, that I’m still getting robocalls from both the Romney campaign and the RNC urging me to vote. I cast my ballot a week ago, and they should know that and stop wasting time on me.